Obama's No Shoo-In

"Obama Must Not Celebrate Yet As US Voters Look For More Than Likeability in White House Race," Yorkshire Post, May 4, 2012. Not available online. "When I was in London last month, everyone agreed on two things: David Cameron is doing badly, and Barack Obama is doing well. So well, in fact, that Mitt Romney, the presumptive Republican nominee, has no chance at all to win in November. The only question in the British mind appears to be about Obama’s margin of victory."

Are Ron Paul's Supporters 'Right-Wingers'?

Democrats, Republicans, and Ron Paul, Centre for Policy Studies, March 2, 2012. "What is just as interesting is that the less well-off, less-educated, the less-religious, the young, and the unmarried, most of whom normally lean Democratic, are this time out going disproportionately (though not in large numbers) for Paul. It is an open question whether that trend is best described as reshaping the Republican Party by bringing new voters in, reshaping the Democratic Party by leading traditional voters out, or as the action of voters fundamentally unaffiliated with either party – and, absent Paul, likely to back neither.

A Case Study of Media Error (Or Bias)

Politifact’s Pants on Fire, Contentions, January 20, 2012. "I’ve worked with PolitiFact before, and while I’ve not agreed with previous pieces, they were at least defensible. What it comes down to is that Romney’s claim is factually correct, but assessing the context would require a book-length analysis that would be subject to a wide amount of legitimate dispute over many factors, some of them fundamentally unknowable. Even if applied earnestly and knowledgeably, fact-checking is terrible at assessing this kind of context, precisely because the facts are not known: it’s why Churchill described strategic leadership as an art, not a science. Fact-checkers would have a better sense of their potential contributions and limits if they bore Churchill’s wisdom in mind, and recognized that checking facts is not the same thing as criticizing art."

Nation-Building in 2012

Major Foreign Policy Addresses in the U.S. Campaign, Centre for Policy Studies, October 13, 2011. "Until Friday, as I noted last month, foreign policy played a mostly indirect role in the 2012 election campaign. In a way, that is no surprise: U.S. elections are rarely won or lost on foreign policy. But considered another way, it is a surprise. There is less daylight than one might think between conservatives on domestic issues: no creditable Republican candidate campaigns for bigger government, more regulation, and higher taxes. Foreign policy offers all the candidates an opportunity to stake out distinctive ground in an area that belongs particularly to the Oval Office."