I Guess I'm the Smart Money

They Said It Couldn’t Be Done, Weekly Standard, May 15, 2015. "The smart money said there was no way the Conservatives could win a majority in last Thursday’s general election in Britain. On the left, the New Statesman’s widely followed May2015 blog offered a cogent argument that there would be a blocking majority even against any repeat of the Conservative-led coalition government. On the right, columnist Matthew Parris echoed many Tories in fearing that the British people were about to make a terrible mistake. But it turns out that you hold elections because you don’t know the result in advance. On May 7, the British people returned a majority Conservative government. The smart money was wrong."

The Reckless Kingmaker

In Britain, Conservatives Face Defeat in ‘Crisis’ By-Election, Weekly Standard Blog, November 19, 2014. "On Thursday, English voters in the constituency of Rochester and Strood, in the country of Kent south-east of London, are likely to return Mark Reckless to Parliament as the UK Independence Party’s (UKIP) second MP. When Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron promised a month ago to throw “everything we can” at the campaign, this wasn’t the result he anticipated."

American Politics in the United Kingdom

Politics of Floating Voters Dominate the Conferences, Yorkshire Post, October 3, 2014. "This year, I attended the Conservative Party Conference, which has just concluded in Birmingham. As a historian of British politics, and as an American conservative who believes that the American and British systems are each excellent in their own way, it was not what I expected."

At the Conservative Party Conference, Cheers All the Way

In Birmingham, Shut Up and Cheer, National Review Online, October 1, 2014. "A regular complaint of British Conservatives is that the party conference is no longer what it once was. It’s not simply small to American eyes; it’s sadly diminished in British ones. There are now no motions from the floor, no debate, and little sense that the party has much interest in reflecting the views of its most active members. As one MP put it to me, the conference is now for lobbyists, corporate donors, and television. Like American political conventions, it exists to affirm the leadership, not to challenge it. Above all, it must be a success."

One of These Things Is Not Like the Other: UKIP and the Tea Party

An American’s Perspective on the Rise of UKIP, Yorkshire Post, August 29, 2014. "Though they’re compared relentlessly, Ukip and the Tea Party are actually very different animals. Ukip’s backers are more likely than the average voter to be older, male, and lower middle class former Tories."

UKIP, the European Elections, and the Opportunity Beyond

Growing Pains, Weekly Standard, May 26, 2014. "There is much to applaud in UKIP’s desire to free the Parliament of Westminster from the toils of Brussels. But there is nothing about this mission that is going to be easy. Whether it wins or not on May 22, UKIP has a narrow and testing window of opportunity before the next general election. If UKIP is going to do the job, this needs to be the year it grows up."

The Need For A Positive No to the EU

UK Needs Freedom to Pick Talent from the Whole World, Yorkshire Post, November 23, 2013. "The EU’s problems are real, and underneath, they will drive voting in the referendum. But the Out campaign needs not just the Thatcherite spirit of rebellion: it needs her optimism. Even in terms of immigration, the EU means favouring talent from Europe, a tiny part of the world, at the expense of talent from the rest of it. And that makes less sense today for Britain than it ever did in the past."

On Britain's Elections (More After)

Labour's Loss: Britain's New Conservative Moment, New Ledger, June 10, 2009.

On Britain's Elections (After)

The Labour Party and the EU Take a Beating in Britain's Elections, Heritage Foundation Foundry, June 8, 2009.

On Britain's Elections (During)

Britain Polls, Brown Sinks, Heritage Foundation Foundry, June 5, 2009.

UKIP, the Expenses Scandal, and the Elections

Two Surprises in Britain's Elections, Contentions, June 5, 2009.

On Britain's Elections (Before)

What To Watch As Britain Goes To The Polls, New Ledger, May 30, 2009.