I Guess I'm the Smart Money

They Said It Couldn’t Be Done, Weekly Standard, May 15, 2015. "The smart money said there was no way the Conservatives could win a majority in last Thursday’s general election in Britain. On the left, the New Statesman’s widely followed May2015 blog offered a cogent argument that there would be a blocking majority even against any repeat of the Conservative-led coalition government. On the right, columnist Matthew Parris echoed many Tories in fearing that the British people were about to make a terrible mistake. But it turns out that you hold elections because you don’t know the result in advance. On May 7, the British people returned a majority Conservative government. The smart money was wrong."

The Possible Populist Future in British Politics

A Very British Shock Result and What It May Mean, Yorkshire Post, May 12, 2015. "I’VE studied Britain for 20 years, but this last week gave me an appreciation for its politics I’ve never had before. Over the last seven days, I followed Conservative candidates in Darlington, Bradford West and Brent Central as they canvassed and addressed the public. All worked hard; all were worthy, and all were in tough constituencies. In the end, none won. Like every other commentator, I failed to predict accurately the outcome of the election. I thought the Tories would win 280 seats. But fortunately, learning isn’t all about making bad predictions."

Why Galloway Went Down

Bradford West, Tower Hamlets, and George Galloway, Weekly Standard, May 7, 2015. "It’s possible that George Galloway, the Member of Parliament for Bradford West in the United Kingdom, will lose his seat in the general election today. It would be nice if this reflected a revolt by his constituents against his habit of blaming “Zionists,” the U.S., and Britain for all the world’s ills. In practice, it’ll be because he’s done nothing of substance for his constituents since he was elected in a notorious 2012 by-election. But you take your wins where you can get them."

The UK Election, Featuring An Entirely Wrong Prediction

The UK’s General Election Will Be Either a Mess or a Disaster, National Review, May 7, 2015. "The recurring theme of election coverage in Britain this year has been that no one cares about the campaign. The satirical magazine Private Eye’s cover this week shows a sleeping David Cameron, with the caption “Passionate Cameron catches national mood.” Funny stuff, but wrong: The campaign has failed to move voters not because it’s been dull, but because Britain is balanced on an ideological knife edge, caught between a fading belief in a limited state and a pudgy love affair with banning, restricting, taxing, and spending. That knife-edge balance will find its reflection in today’s results."

The Election, Viewed from Brent Central

Why Britain’s Conservatives are Facing Defeat: They’re Short-Sighted, National Review, May 6, 2015. "The constituency of Brent Central, in northwest London, is a strange place. It’s new, for one thing: It was created by amalgamating and splitting several other constituencies in 2010. If the incumbent member of Parliament, Sarah Teather, had not decided to stand down, it might have stayed Liberal Democrat, which — in this election, when the Liberal Democrats are forecast to lose about half their seats — would have been an achievement for that party."

The Election, Viewed from West Bradford

A Conservative Takes on Britain’s Israel-Hating Windbag Par Excellence, National Review, May 6, 2015. "Bradford in Yorkshire doesn’t look like you’d expect it to. It’s notorious as the home of several of Britain’s worst race riots, and, since 2012, as the parliamentary constituency of George Galloway, the Soviet apologist and anti-Israel demagogue whose 1994 salute to Saddam Hussein’s “courage” marked the start of a new and more vicious phase of his career as a hater of the West. So you’d expect Bradford to be a post-industrial wasteland. Instead, it’s a city with a heart of broad, strong, Yorkshire stone and beautiful vistas over the dales. Rarely does a place look so much better than its reputation. But you know what they say about appearances."

The Election, Viewed from Darlington

In Northern England, the Tories Look to Regain a Little Lost Ground, National Review, May 5, 2015. "Darlington, a market town in County Durham in England’s northeast, is the kind of constituency that the Conservative party needs to win if it wants to form a government after the British general election this Thursday, May 7."

The Decline and Fall of British Liberalism

Election Reveals Battle for Britain’s True Liberal Soul, Yorkshire Post, April 17, 2015. "THE debates between the party leaders have made one thing clear. The election isn’t just a struggle between the Tories, Labour, and the rest. It’s a moment that reveals the state of British liberalism. By liberalism, I don’t mean the nanny-statism that today passes for liberalism, with its identity group politics, its ravenous appetite for state spending in the name of appearing to care and its 
love of top-down control."

Meet Mr. Camerband

From Butskell to Camerband, Weekly Standard, March 20, 2015. "Today, the strenuous partisan warfare between Cameron and Miliband belies the emergence of a comparable composite, Mr. Camerband, who embodies a near-convergence that goes well beyond finance. The only exceptions in the current Tory-led coalition are Michael Gove’s reforms in education, which got him demoted, and Iain Duncan Smith’s welfare revolution, which has survived largely thanks to Smith’s passionate commitment and seniority within the party."

The Reckless Kingmaker

In Britain, Conservatives Face Defeat in ‘Crisis’ By-Election, Weekly Standard Blog, November 19, 2014. "On Thursday, English voters in the constituency of Rochester and Strood, in the country of Kent south-east of London, are likely to return Mark Reckless to Parliament as the UK Independence Party’s (UKIP) second MP. When Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron promised a month ago to throw “everything we can” at the campaign, this wasn’t the result he anticipated."

As Cameron Goes, So Goes (Maybe) the GOP

Britain’s Lesson for U.S. Conservatives, Newsday, October 25, 2013. "Britain is led by a coalition of two parties: the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. That may well change in 2015, after the next election. Conservatives’ difficulties in Britain offer lessons for their U.S. counterparts."

On Weak British Election Analysis in Foreign Affairs

What the British Elections Were All About, New Ledger, May 12, 2010. "It’s not fair to say that Mark Blyth and Jonathan Hopkin’s piece in Foreign Affairs on “Labour Pains: Why the British General Election is a Referendum on Its Past,” is the worst piece of commentary I’ve read on the subject."

Lessons from Churchill to Cameron on May 10

In Britain, Cometh the Hour, Cometh the Man?, FoxNews.com, May 10, 2010. "May is a momentous month in British political history. By virtue of the respite it offers from Britain’s legendarily gloomy weather, it has witnessed more than its fair share of elections. And by virtue of the fact that good campaigning weather is also good fighting weather, May marks the most historic handover of power in modern British political history. Today is the seventieth anniversary of the beginning of France’s defeat at the hands of the German Army, of Winston Churchill’s entry into Number 10 Downing Street, and of Britain’s salvation."

Preliminary Reactions to the UK Election

So, What’s the British Outcome Mean?, Contentions, May 7, 2010. "Jokes abound. One colleague tells me it’s a Mick Jagger election: no one got any satisfaction. I’m reminded of Zhou Enlai’s response when asked about the significance of the French Revolution: it’s too soon to tell. But at the risk of being proved wrong by political developments over the next few hours, and analysis of the results over the next few years, let me offer a take. First, one really heartening fact: as Martin Bright points out, it was a bad night for Islamists and fascists."

What America Thinks (If Anything) About Britain's Election

America Shies Away from Britain’s Woes, Yorkshire Post, May 7, 2010. "By and large, Americans are not much interested in foreign elections. Britain has always been the exception that proves the rule. That's partly because Britons and Americans speak the same language – or so Americans believe. But, of course, the Canadians and the Australians speak English, and their elections pass by quietly in the U.S."

Mr. Brown and the 'Bigoted' Voter

Uh, Mr. Brown, the Microphone's Live, Contentions, April 29, 2010. "Shades of Frank Drebin: Gordon Brown may have sunk his chances in Britain’s general election with an unguarded comment into a microphone he didn’t realize he was still wearing. After campaigning in Rochdale in northern England, he muttered, amid a stream of invective directed at his aides, that 61-year-old Labour supporter Gillian Duffy was a “bigoted woman” for questioning him about the impact on the British job market of immigration from Eastern Europe."